It was initially thought that the Canadian real estate market as a whole would experience a turn around after the subdues numbers posted during much of 2018. However, now industry experts warn that lower sales forecasts are again likely. During the summer of 2018, sales numbers did quite well, outperforming initial pessimism but overall the numbers haven’t matched the years before. 2019 may look much the same as this year with a potential to go a bit lower.
It is difficult to forecast the market correctly, this isn’t a secret. Just ask realtors all over the country in large cities like Toronto or Vancouver and smaller towns alike and they’ll tell you that just because the average market slows, many areas will not follow the trend. Smaller markets, like that in the area of one of the Brantford realtors we spoke to, can be immune to market shifts. Brantford has seen a steady increase, often times outperforming other markets. The reason being that Brantford is a growing city and home buyers that find themselves priced out of markets like Toronto, are looking for housing in the suburbs, and they are doing so in droves. Also, market forecasts or situations aren’t always applicable to individuals looking to sell their home or buy one.
Back to the forecasts…
Canadian real estate has a 9% drop in sales forecasted. The CREA forecasts that 462,900 sales will occur across the country by the end of 2018. This number is lower than the previous year signifying a 9.8% drop. 2019’s forecast is for 471,000 sales, up 2.1% from 2108. However, it’s still lower than the soaring markets we experienced up to 2017, and below the 10-year average. For comparison, 2017 saw just under 520,00 sales reported.
Real estate markets are hard to predict at the best of times but recently there has been extra uncertainty. The USA – Canada trade situation is a big one that has been keeping may buyers and sellers on their toes. Some economists predict a recession while the CREA predicts national sales could rebound slightly throughout 2019. The general market is looking less vigorous, and many similarities from 2018 should carry over in to next year. The CREA is predicating a 2.1% sales rebound nationally in 2019, which is still beneath the annual level averages during 2014-2017. Ontario looks to continue to lead the way for sales growth with sales increase predictions of 5.3% and a price increase of 3.3%.
Home buyers may be looking to make an entry while prices are depressed and get in before interest rates go up. There is an uncertainty surrounding the Canadian real estate market which we will be watching closely as we move in to 2019. Sellers may continue to be reluctant to sell, waiting for the market s to come back up more or not.